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Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7
Working on behalf of NHS England, this paper uses the OpenSAFELY platform to estimate the risk of death following confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, comparing infection with VOC to non-VOC, after accounting for demographic factors and comorbidities
Eurosurveillance, 2021
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.
- Daniel Grint,
- Kevin Wing,
- Elizabeth Williamson,
- Helen McDonald,
- Krishnan Bhaskaran,
- Dave Evans,
- Stephen Evans,
- Alex Walker,
- George Hickman,
- Emily Nightingale,
- Anna Schultze,
- Christopher Rentsch,
- Chris Bates,
- Jonathan Cockburn,
- Helen Curtis,
- Caroline Morton,
- Seb Bacon,
- Simon Davy,
- Angel Wong,
- Amir Mehrkar,
- Laurie Tomlinson,
- Ian Douglas,
- Rohini Mathur,
- Paula Blomquist,
- Brian MacKenna,
- Peter Ingelsby,
- Richard Croker,
- John Parry,
- Frank Hester,
- Sam Harper,
- Nick DeVito,
- Will Hulme,
- John Tazare,
- Ben Goldacre,
- Liam Smeeth,
- Rosalind Eggo